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A growing ‘greenlash’ against Europe’s environmental agenda has not so far derailed its decarbonization plans, but looming elections could put future climate and nature measures at risk.
The European Union has consolidated its position as a global leader in climate change by enshrining targets for carbon reduction into law, and proposing strategies to reduce emissions within the next decade.
And so far the impact of the green backlash is limited, say policymakers and analysts, because most of Europe’s main CO2-cutting policies are fixed into law.
A cost-of living crisis is causing citizens to resist policymakers’ efforts to achieve net-zero energy targets.
Angst over a law to phase out oil and gas heating brought Germany’s ruling coalition close to breaking point, while in the Netherlands, anger at plans to cut nitrogen pollution led to a shock poll win for a new farmers’ protest party.
Analysts claim that politicians will increasingly appeal to the concerns of voters about the cost of green policies as they prepare for regional, EU and national elections in the coming year.
“It’s definitely different circumstances than in 2019 when we started with this maximum support and the political willingness to act from … across the parties,” European Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevicius told Reuters.
Polls indicate that the majority of people are worried by climate change. There is also a lot of business interest behind the green shift.
“We have this stable majority which supports the green deal,” he said, referring to the level of support in the European Parliament for the EU’s overall green agenda.
“But then we come to more difficult files (EU legal proposals) where I think, inevitably, they are very much affected by the political debate,” Sinkevicius added.
According to officials, the passage of green laws is becoming more challenging, as some EU countries resist new limits on car emissions and seek to reduce pollution controls at livestock farms. Countries concerned about the costs are pushing back against a proposal to increase the energy efficiency in buildings.
Poland’s government, which faces October elections, is even suing Brussels over climate policies.
“Does the EU want to make authoritarian decisions about what kind of vehicles Poles will drive?” its Minister of Climate and Environment Anna Moskwa asked last month.
Nathalie tocci, the director of Italian Think Tank Istituto Affari Internazionali for international relations, stated that conservation of nature measures faces even greater resistance than decarbonization because of lobbying of powerful agricultural sector, and due to a lack strong incentives from business.
Although a recent campaign by the center-right European People’s Party, the biggest group in the European Parliament, to kill off a proposed law to restore damaged environments failed, the proposal looks set to be diluted.
“The elections to the European Parliament next year will be very decisive if one looks further ahead, because the center right group is turning more negative to green policies,” the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Mats Engström said.
Green Investor Confidence
Another concern is the impact on Europe’s diplomatic standing and investor confidence, coming as the United States offers multi-billion-dollar green subsidies and tax breaks.
“It’s slightly ironic that Europe is having these problems when the United States has finally got its act together,” said Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
Ward warned that Europe risks falling behind India in the establishment of green technologies and industries.
India’s solar capacity grew by 28% last year, exceeding the growth in capacity of European powerhouses.
“If Europe is wavering, it will allow other countries to take advantage in the international markets in electric vehicles and other technologies,” Ward said.
He said that Britain had already gone from being the leader of green policies on the global stage, to appearing quite weak.
Britain’s climate advisers said in June the country is not doing enough to meet its 2050 net zero target, while a government-commissioned review found businesses complained of weaknesses in Britain’s investment environment.
The UK’s onshore and off-shore wind industry has seen its progress slowed by recent rule changes. This led some developers, such as GE, to say that it would be difficult to attract investors without more incentives.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who faces an election within 18 months, last month warned of climate policies that “unnecessarily give people more hassle and more costs.”
Citizens, Businesses
Europe’s green policies are still more credible than U.S. ones, given see-sawing between electoral cycles in the United States, some analysts said.
If they are to continue to receive support from citizens and business, EU legislators will need to take into account more of the concerns that they have.
Rob Jetten, Dutch Minister of Climate and Energy Policy told Reuters that in the coming years the biggest challenge would be for politicians to demonstrate that the green transformation was a fair transition that included support for those who were in need.
Right-wing populists have been pushed to the second spot in Dutch and German surveys by disputes about green policies.
Nina Scheer said that the German heating law disaster underscored how important it is to ensure green laws enable transition without overwhelming anybody, the climate protection spokesperson of the ruling Social Democrats.
“Otherwise, citizens might start to feel that climate policy is always financially overwhelming and bad, and that sentiment is then exploited by populists.”
Simone Tagliapietra is a Senior Fellow with the think tank Bruegel.
“If we don’t create green jobs in Europe, if we don’t make sure to have these industrial and economic opportunities, we will be in trouble,” Tagliapietra said.
The report was written by Kate Abnett and Sarah Marsh from Brussels and London, with additional reporting done by Anthony Deutsch and Angelo Amante of Rome and Warsaw. Susanne Twidale in London and William James at London.
Topics
Europe
Pollution
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